As we move into the final few weekends of the turf flat season we've another 'crackerjack' of a card this Saturday to look forward to as it's Champions Day at Ascot racecourse.
Yes, the Berkshire track is the sole meeting being covered by the ITV cameras this weekend, but with four Group 1's a Group 2 and a competitive handicap its a card that always has a Royal Ascot feel as the best-of-the best from all ranges of trips lock horns.
We get going with the Long Distance Cup over 2m - a race that Sheikhzayedroad will be trying to win for a second year on the bounce, but with the likes of Big Orange and Order Of St George entered then David Simcock's charge is going to have to be right at the top of his game if he's to retain his title.
The Group One's get going with the Champions Sprint - a contest the James Fanshawe-trained The Tin Man landed 12 months go - while the Fillies & Mares Stakes and QEII Stakes are next up before we end the Group One races with the main event - the Champion Stakes. Another 'unmissable' contest that sees the likes of Cracksman and Ulysses doing battle in what looks a top renewal. The card ends with the ultra-competitive Balmoral Handicap.
So, as always, we’ve got it all covered here at JUICESTORM with all the key trends, plus our verdict, on each of the LIVE ITV races - we’re confident these trends will point you in the direction of a few winners, or at least help narrow down some of the field to highlight the horses that fit the best profile of past winners – So, let’s get started!
Ascot Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)
1.25 - Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) Cl1 2m ITV
13/15 – Raced within the last 5 weeks12/15 – Won at Listed or better class previously
12/15 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ lengths or less
11/15 – Aged 5 or older
10/15 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
10/15 – Favourites placed
10/15 – Raced at least 5 times that season
10/15 – Won over at least 2 miles on the flat previously
10/15 – Won at least 5 times previously
8/15 – Raced at Longchamp (3), Ascot (2) or Doncaster (3) last time out
6/15 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
7/15 – Won their latest race
4/15 – Irish-trained winners
Sheikhzayedroad (11/1) won the race in 2016
Since 2011: 5 of the last 6 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 7 have been placed in 3 of the last 5
The average winning odds in the last 11 runnings is 11/2
Note: From 2010 back the race was run at Newmarket
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Of those at a bigger price, then it would be foolish to ignore last year’s winner – Sheikhzayedroad. This David Simcock-trained runner caused a minor shock 12 months ago and had a lot of these horses – including the hot favourite this year, Order Of St George, beaten that day. Yes, he’s not won since, but has been tackling some of the top long distance races this season, while good recent runs at York and Doncaster were encouraging efforts that mean he heads here with a fair chance of defending his title. Aidan O’Brien’s 2016 Ascot Gold Cup winner - Order Of St George - does, however, still set the standard for the others to aim at – especially after his recent fourth in the Arc! He was only 5 ¼ lengths behind the classy Enable that day in France and on that running would certainly take all the beating. This versatile horse is back up in trip here though and despite winning the Irish St Leger this season has also been turned over this season in the Ascot Gold Cup after a titanic battle with another of today’s runners – Big Orange. Order Of St George has also been sent off favourite in 7 of his last 9 races and the fact he’s only won three of those suggests he’s not the most reliable. Yes, he’s a big player, but he was beaten in this race 12 months ago after running well in the Arc and it could be more of the same this time – at the price he’s certainly no value for me. His conqueror in the Gold Cup – Big Orange – has been kept fresh with this race in mind after last running at Goodwood back in August. He was a decent second that day in the Group One Goodwood Cup and with just four runs this term will head here fresher than most. We can expect another bold bid from the front with his Gold Cup winning jockey – James Doyle – back in the saddle. He looks an in-running back-to-lay option as his price is sure to contract during the race. But Frankie Dettori, who has had some good times with Big Orange in the past too, rides the St Leger third STRADIVARIUS and this improving 3 year-old looks the value. John Gosden’s charge took the Queen’s Vase here at the Royal Meeting and then despatched of Big Orange in the Goodwood Cup, before running a gallant third back against his own age group in the St Leger at Doncaster. He was only beaten ½ a length last time and despite having a tough season Gosden has made sure he’s had plenty of time between races – with a 35 day break he’ll get that again here. The key here though to this 118-rated 3 year-old is the weight he gets off the likes of Order Of St George and Big Orange. The 8lbs he’ll receive gives him a big advantage and it’s something he took full advantage off at Goodwood back in August when getting a similar allowance from Big Orange. He stays this 2m trip well and with winning course form this season at Ascot then he’ll have no issues on that front either. Of The rest, Nearly Caught ran ok in this race 12 months ago (5th) and might go well again at a big price, while Dartmouth and Desert Skyline, who also gets the 3 year-old allowance and caught the eye last time when upped in trip, can also make their presence felt.
2.00 - Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV
15/15 – Won over 6f previously14/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/15 – Raced at least 4 times that season
14/15 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
14/15 – Won at least 3 times previously
13/15 – Won at Listed or better class previously
12/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/15 – Raced at Ascot previously (3 won)
11/15 – Won a Group race previously
11/15 – Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
10/15 – Favourites placed
9/15 – Raced at Haydock (5), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/15 – Won their latest race
4/15 – Favourites that won
The Tin Man (13/2) won the race in 2016
Since 2011: 4 of the last 6 winners have come from stalls 12 (2) or 14 (2)
Since 2011: 4 of the last 6 winners came from double-figure stalls
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 12 placed 4 of the last 6 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 14 placed 4 of the last 6 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 11 runnings is 13/2
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket
JUICESTORM VERDICT: We’ve another reigning champion trying to defend his title here as last year’s winner – The Tin Man – heads to post. This talented sprinter has already had a top season after landing the Diamond Jubilee Stakes here at the Royal Meeting and comes into the race having won his last two here at Ascot. He clearly loves the stiff track and despite having a fair bit to find with the improving Harry Angel, based on his last two outings, the fact he’s back at Ascot is a big plus – he can go well. Caravaggio will be hoping to give his trainer another win at the highest level as Aidan O’Brien continues his quest for a record-breaking Group One wins in a season. His 3 year-old is another that loves it here at Ascot after winning the Coventry in 2016 and then the Commonwealth Cup here this June. He lost his way a bit during July and August, but bounced back to winning form last time at the Curragh. He’s certainly a big player based on his Ascot winning form, but the fact he’s had a few wobbles since and that he’s another that has seen Harry Angel improve past him, then it could be hit or miss backing him. So, that leaves us with HARRY ANGEL. This Clive Cox-trained 3 year-old hasn’t looked back since getting beaten in the Commonwealth Cup here in June when winning the July Cup and Haydock Sprint Cup in impressive fashion after - there could be even more to come! Being a 3 year-old he gets weight from the older horses but on a mark of 125 is the top-rated in the race anyway! Those looking to take him on will look to the fact he’s run here at Ascot three times now and been beaten into second each time, but those were still solid efforts and it’s clear he’s a much-improved horse now too. He should take all the beating.
2.40 - Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f ITV
9/9 – Raced 3 or more times that season8/9 – Won over 1m4f previously
8/9 – Won at Listed or better class previously
7/9 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
7/9 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
7/9 – Won at least 3 times previously
7/9 – Raced within the last 9 weeks
6/9 – Rated 110 or higher
5/9 – Favourites placed
5/9 – Aged 3 years-old
5/9 – Won their last race
2/9 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/9 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/9 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 7/1
Journey (4/1) won the race 12 months ago
Note: The 2009 & 2010 renewals were run at Newmarket
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Yet another race that we’ve the current champion running as the John Gosden-trained JOURNEY bids to do what she did 12 months ago and land this lucrative prize. She got the job done by an impressive 4 lengths last year and if turning up in that sort of form again would be very hard to beat. Yes, she’s not won since and ran below-par in both the Coronation Cup and the Pretty Polly Stakes this season. However, her most recent run over in France, when second to another of today’s runners – Bateel, was a sign a return to form could be just around the corner. She’s another that should benefit from the return to Ascot – a track that she’s yet to finish out of the first two at (from 2 outings). Any heavy rain would be a negative, so take that into account, but would have had this race as a target all season. The already-mentioned Bateel is a big player too after that recent Group One win in France and heads here on a 4-timer too. She’s a horse on the up and is certainly a better animal than 12 months ago when last of 13 in this race. Any rain will be fine for her. The Gosden camp also run their St Leger fifth Coronet, who is a proven course and distance winner after landing the Ribblesdale Stakes at the Royal Meeting. She’s got decent top-level form this season and is another that is sure to make her presence felt. But the fact Dettori jumps off her (rode her last time) to ride Journey suggests the pocket Italian might prefer last year’s winner. Of the rest, the main Aidan O’Brien runner Hydrangea gets weight being a 3 year-old and don’t forget she beat the classy Winter two starts ago at Leopardstown. She followed that up with a close second in the Prix L’Opera in France and providing that race hasn’t taken much out of her is a big player. The big question surrounding her though is the trip as this is her first try over 1m4f. Breeding suggests it will be hit and miss if she’ll get it, but her powerful connections clearly seem to think he will. A big player, but I’d prefer to stick with the proven Journey, who we already know gets this trip and loves the track.
3.15 - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV
15/15 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out15/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
15/15 – Raced at least 3 times that season
15/15 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
14/15 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
13/15 – Finished in the top three in their last race
12/15 – Favourites placed
11/15 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/15 – Raced at Ascot previously (5 won)
8/15 – Won their latest race
8/15 – Won at least 7 times previously
7/15 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
7/15 – Favourites that won
4/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
Minding (7/4 fav) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 11/4
Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 4 of the last 6 runnings
Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket
JUICESTORM VERDICT: A cracking renewal of this Group One, but despite the 15 strong field it would be a bit of a shock if the winner isn’t coming from one of just four runners. This season’s 2,000 Guineas hero – Churchill – is one of those four and after trying 1m2f the last twice without success the drop back to a mile is sure to suit. He’s won 7 of his 11 starts and after that Guineas win back in May looked to be the best big O’Brien superstar to come out of their yard, but after flopping at Ascot, and not looking quite the same horse over 1m2f, there will be plenty looking to take him on – especially as he’s now been a beaten favourite in his last three races. French raider – Al Wukair – is the next of the ‘big four’ to look at. He’s a proven Group One winner that don’t forget was also third in the 2,000 Guineas behind Churchill back in May. He’s yet to finish out of the top three from his 6 career starts and is a horse that has decent form on a variety of different ground. They are certainly not coming over just for a day out and in the first-time cheekpieces and heading here fresh after 2 months off should be in the shake-up too. On pure ratings, Ribchester is the one to beat as he’s rated 125, but does have to give 3lbs away to the 3 year-olds and, therefore, might not have it all his own way. He’s a proven course and distance winner that was a good winner of the Queen Anne Stakes here in June. An unlucky close second in the Sussex Stakes and a recent win in France have cemented another top season for this Richard Fahey-trained 4 year-old and it would be a surprise if he’s not going close. However, of the main four the one that I like is BEAT THE BANK (e/w). This Andrew Balding-trained 3 year-old has improved leaps-and-bounds this season and despite not tackling Group One company yet certainly deserves his chance. He heads here having won his last three, including the Group Two Joel Stakes last time out by an impressive 5 lengths. He gets a handy 3lbs from the older horses and since being stepped-up to a mile is 3-from-3. Yes, he flopped over 7f here in the Jersey Stakes in June so there is a question mark surrounding the track, but for whatever reason he’s a horse that has improved bundles since – especially over this mile trip – and based on recent efforts is worth a go mixing it with some of the best milers around. Of those at bigger prices, Godolphin’s Thunder Snow and shock Sussex Stakes winner – Here Comes When – can go best.
3.50 - Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f ITV
15/15 – Won at least 4 times previously14/15 – Won between 4 and 8 times previously
14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
14/15 – Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
13/15 – Won over 1m2f previously
13/15 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
11/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/15 – Raced 5 or more times that season
9/15 – Won their last race
7/15 – Raced at either Longchamp (4) or Goodwood (3) last time out
6/15 – Favourites unplaced
6/15 – Returned a double-figure price
4/15 – Won by a French-based trainer
3/15 – Ridden by Tom Queally
3/15 – Favourites
Almanzor (11/8 fav) won the race 12 months ago
Since 2011: Horses from stall 5 have won 2 of the last 4 runnings
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 7/1
JUICESTORM VERDICT: Onto the main event, and it’s yet another top-notch renewal that sees most of the big yards represented. French raider – Brametot, who was a decent fifth in the Arc last time out, sets a decent standard on that form – he was only beaten 6 ½ lengths that day and should benefit for this drop back in trip to 1m2f. He’s certainly not coming over for a day trip and the French have a fair record in this race, but it is worth pointing out this is his first run outside France, and, therefore, also his first at Ascot, so the track is an unknown. Highland Reel is a real old pro these days and after wins in the Coronation Cup and Prince of Wales’s Stakes this season owes connections nothing. He was last seen running fourth behind Enable in the King George here in July, while with overall form figures at the track that read 2-1-1-4 and the fact we know he stays further than this 1m2f trip suggest he’s going to be popular with punters again. Derby second, Cliff Of Moher, and the consistent Poet’s Word are others to note that have the form to go close, but this could be left for Barney Roy and CRACKSMAN to fight out. Barney Roy is a tough individual that was a close second in the Eclipse over this trip in July and has since run third in the Juddmonte International at York. He also landed the St James’s Palace Stakes here over a mile so we know the track suits and after 2 months off will head here fresh. But with the jury still slightly out over this trip he’s overlooked. Yes, he was a close second in the Eclipse, but against horses here that we know stay even further than this distance then he could be vulnerable in the closing stages. Cracksman, on the other hand, has winning form over 1m4f and also this trip this season so we can expect the Gosden team and jockey Frankie Dettori to make full use of that proven stamina. He bypassed some fancy engagements – including the Arc – to come here fresh and that will also be a plus for him. His recent wins in the Great Voltigeur and the Prix Niel were super-impressive, while any further rain would certainly not hinder his chance after dotting up in soft ground last time in France.
4.30 - Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) Cl2 1m ITV
Just 3 previous runningsAll 3 previous winners aged 5 years-old
All 3 previous winners draw 10 or lower
All 3 previous winners ran at Newmarket last time out
No winning favourite
Horses from stalls 12 or 13 have been placed in the last 3 runnings
JUICESTORM VERDICT: We end Champions Day with a tough 20 runner handicap, but being a fairly new race there are only snippets of recent trends to go on. Despite the big field we’ve actually a couple of runners that are short in the betting - Zabeel Prince and Lord Glitters. Zabeel Prince heads here off the back of three wins from June and during that time has gone up 16lbs in the ratings. This Roger Varian runner could easily be better than a handicapper so despite being 6lbs higher than his most recent York win could still be well-in at the weights. He won by just under 3 lengths that day and, as I say, could easily still be ahead of the handicapper and turn into a decent Listed or Group horse next season. Any rain would also be a plus with two wins on soft ground. Lord Glitters made a decent start to his UK career after a close second here last time out on his first run for the O’Meara camp and being that was his first run for almost 5 months can be expected to improve for it. However, there is also a chance of the ‘bounce-factor’ after such a good effort, while the horse that beat him that day – Accidental Agent – re-opposes and is almost three times the price. Course winners, GM Hopkins and Speculative Bid are others that often go well in these big-field handicaps. Horses from stalls 12 and 13 have already built up a good record in the race, but – don’t forget – it’s only from 3 previous renewals. The hat-trick seeking The Grape Escape has been handed draw 12 and after nice wins at Sandown and Pontefract comes here as a leading player. Yes, he’s up 6lbs from that last win and this is a step up in grade, but the softer ground last time clearly helped and with just seven career runs is a horse we’ve probably not seen the best of just yet – one for the shortlist. At the moment Century Dream has been handed draw 13, but he’s currently a reserve. So, on paper it looks a tough race, but it’s hard to get away from the way ZABEEL PRINCE has been getting the job done in recent outings and off just a 6lb higher rating is a horse that looks destined for races that are better than handicaps.
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Original quote: “Hajaam – Will love conditions up at Haydock and I would like to think he is well-handicapped. Is well at home so hoping he should go close here with Paddy Bradley riding in this apprentice handicap.” 1st 8/1, Charlie Fellowes
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